During an election cycle political news is overwhelmed with punditry. We hear multitudes of different theories for every tiny poll shift. The latest NZ national elections were no different. ‘Dirty politics’, spying, lying, tax policy, asset sales, the list goes on. But is there a simpler driver of voter behaviour?
If you want to know how New Zealanders will vote, just ask GDP:
Since 1990, no New Zealand government that has kept GDP growth above 1% has failed to be re-elected.
P.S. For all my kiwi friends living abroad that have vowed to not return home until there is a change in government – make sure you’ve got some cash saved. There’s a good chance it will be during a recession.